There is the smell of bull in the air. Economic indicators suggest the global recovery was short-lived and we are on the brink of being sucked back into the great recession. Although analysts had predicted gold prices to crash, events over the past week suggest the bottom for gold is over already and the bull is set to run again.
A slow-down in the Chinese economy and poor employment figures in the US panicked traders into turning their backs on equities in favour of a gold and silver safe haven. As a result gold prices have rallied slightly whilst oil, wheat and sugar have all gone down.
Some speculators are now changing their minds about gold prices heading towards the $1000 mark and instead are contemplating a bull market. If the economy does collapse because of the credit burden, a gold bull market will create a whole new class of millionaires – if you invest now whilst prices are low.
Recent history of gold prices
During times of economic crisis, the spot value of gold and silver go up. During the Cuban Missile Crisis and embargo on oil during the 1970´s gold prices went from a lowly $35 in 1971 to a massive $800 by 1980.
The next lurch was even bigger in real monetary terms. Between 2001 and 2011, gold prices bloated from $250 per troy ounce to $1920. Speculators are predicting the next financial crash will be even worse than 2008. Should that be the case, gold prices can more than double what they are now!
Commercial traders are at their most bullish since the 2001 low and with gold production likely to slow because of limited resources, gold prices in the next twenty years will rocket.
Some technical analysts are already pointing to historical chart formations and are buying gold whilst prices are as low. Is this as low as they will get? It´s hard to say right now, but many analysts that were predicting gold prices to crash are now saying the nosedive has bottomed out.
Crash waiting to happen
However, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut its stimulus program by another US$10bn to US$65bn it is more likely that confidence will be restored in the equities market over the next week and gold prices will begin their downward turn as original predicted.
It is difficult to imagine that the economy will collapse so soon after governments have ploughed so much electronic money to fuel the system. If the quantitative easing program fails there will be an absolute outcry – therefore central banks and governments cannot allow the economy to fail – not yet anyway.
The debt ceiling cannot be propped up forever and will eventually come tumbling down on banks and overspending politicians. When the crash does hit the world economy will be in absolute tatters and banks account holders are likely to lose a chink of their savings.
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